Honduran shrimp exports are poised to experience a historic downturn as 2024 comes to a close, marking significant challenges for the nation’s aquaculture sector.

Juan Carlos Javier, the president of the National Association of Aquaculturists of Honduras (Andah), reports that preliminary estimates indicate exports will dwindle to 30,000 tons, a striking reduction from the 35,800 tons observed in 2023. This decline represents an astonishing 24% drop in year-on-year export volume, signalling critical shifts in the industry.

The Financial Fallout

The financial implications of this downturn are not merely theoretical. In 2024, the value of Honduran shrimp exports is projected to hover around USD 220 million, a stark contrast to the USD 265.7 million accrued the previous year. This means a loss of USD 45 million in foreign currency generation, compounding the impact of reduced export volume—a concerning trend for an industry reliant on overseas markets.

The root causes of this decline are multifaceted, with significant barriers arising from geopolitical shifts. Following the cessation of diplomatic relations between Honduras and Taiwan in March 2023, the previously beneficial free trade agreement was nullified. As a result, shrimp exports to Taiwan now face a 20% tariff, directly impacting the competitiveness of Honduran shrimp in this key market.

Market Metrics

As of October 31, 2024, export figures provide a sobering snapshot of the situation. A total of 23,300 tons was exported, compared to 30,500 tons during the same period last year. This represents a loss of 7,200 tons, and foreign currency generation plummeted from USD 225.4 million to USD 184.6 million, a staggering fall of USD 40.8 million.

The decline in exports is chiefly attributed to a steep decrease in trade with Taiwan, where exports plummeted from 10,000 tons to just 3,350 tons—a staggering loss of 6,650 tons. Mexico has also contributed to this downward trend, with exports shrinking from 8,400 tons to 6,100 tons, resulting in a loss of 2,300 tons.

A Glimmer of Hope in Europe?

Conversely, there is a silver lining in the form of increased exports to the European Union, which saw shipments rise from 6,500 tons to 8,300 tons, an uptick of 1,750 tons. Nonetheless, this increment alone fails to offset the dramatic reductions seen in other markets, leaving the Honduran shrimp industry at a crossroads.