The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) recently released new data projecting a modest growth in the gross value of Australian fisheries and aquaculture production for the fiscal year 2023−24. The forecast suggests a 0.5% increase, reaching a value of AUD 3.56 billion (USD 2.32 billion).

Aquaculture Sector Leading the Growth

One of the notable highlights from the ABARES data is the anticipated growth of the aquaculture sector. Projections indicate a 5% increase in real terms expected by 2028-29, reaching AUD 2.21 billion (USD 1.44 billion). This growth trajectory is particularly noteworthy as it is poised to represent 64% of the total seafood sector production value.

Despite expectations of easing prices for prawns, salmonids, abalone, and tuna, the aquaculture sector is expected to thrive. Higher production volumes catering predominantly to domestic consumers are anticipated to be the driving force behind this growth. This trend underscores the resilience and adaptability of the aquaculture industry in the face of changing market dynamics.

Challenges in Fisheries and Aquaculture Exports

While domestic production paints a picture of growth, the story for fisheries and aquaculture exports appears less optimistic. ABARES forecasts a 2% decrease in export value to AUD 1.43 billion (USD 930 million) for the fiscal year 2023−24. This downward trend is expected to persist over the medium term.

The declining competitiveness of Australian seafood exports is a cause for concern. Projections suggest a continued decline, with export value expected to decrease further to AUD 1.23 billion (USD 802 million) in real terms by 2028-29. This downward trajectory is indicative of broader challenges facing the Australian seafood export market.

Uncertainties Looming Ahead

Conditions for Australian seafood exports remain challenging and uncertain. The combination of falling prices and the looming specter of climate change presents significant hurdles for the industry. The potential long-term impacts of climate change on global seafood production and trade introduce a layer of uncertainty that could further exacerbate the challenges faced by exporters.