A recent Rabobank report sheds light on the current state of the global farmed shrimp industry, indicating a slight improvement compared to the previous year. Key markets such as the United States, European Union, Japan, and South Korea are showing signs of resurgence in demand, albeit from a low point with gradual recovery.

Retail Dynamics Impacting Recovery

Despite these positive indicators, the road to full recovery remains sluggish, primarily due to retail dynamics, particularly in the United States. Pricing dynamics in retail outlets have hindered a complete rebound, with retailers not passing on the full decline of wholesale prices to consumers.

Gorjan Nikolik, senior analyst at Rabobank, presented insights during the North American Seafood Forum (NASF), offering a snapshot of what the shrimp sector can expect for 2024. Nikolik pointed out that while the worst may have passed for some markets like the US, uncertainties persist, especially regarding sustained growth in Europe and China’s economic stability.

Regional Analysis

In the United Kingdom, despite a decline in wholesale prices, the retail price of shrimp increased in 2023, aligning with pricing strategies rather than reflecting market dynamics. In Asia, Japan, and South Korea, demand growth appears to be returning, signaling positive trends.

China, traditionally a major market driver, faces economic uncertainty, raising questions about its impact on global shrimp demand. Supply levels are projected to remain steady in 2024, with India and Indonesia poised to capitalize on demand from the United States if it remains positive.

Future Outlook

While some regions show promising signs, caution prevails amid persistent challenges and uncertainties. Changes in the shrimp market have led to more efficient producers replacing less efficient ones, altering the supply curve. However, achieving significant price increases remains challenging due to continued supply growth.

Uncertainty looms over China’s net shrimp imports, which could affect Ecuador’s growth prospects. Additionally, concerns over tariffs and labor abuse allegations in the US might weaken import demand, potentially leading to a supply contraction in the industry, especially in Asia.