Global whiteleg shrimp harvests will grow significantly, according to Norwegian seafood analytics company Kontali. At the recent Shrimp Summit in Chennai, India, Kontali analyst Erwin Termaat noted that Ecuador, India, and Vietnam are ramping up production despite a demand crisis.

Predictive Modeling and Forecasting

Kontali uses official export statistics and industry sources to determine ‘live shrimp equivalent’ (LSE) weights and feed mill data to forecast future harvests. Global farmed whiteleg shrimp production is expected to reach 5.7 million tonnes this year, increasing by 7% to 6.1 million tonnes next year.

Ecuador’s shrimp output is projected to grow by 8% this year. Despite logistical challenges in China and US trade duties, lifting the suspension on nine Ecuadorian exporters to China is expected to boost exports. Ecuador’s harvest is expected to exceed 1.4 million tonnes by 2024.

India’s Steady Climb

India faced severe disease conditions in 2023, but production is still increasing at 2%, exceeding 1 million tonnes. Early 2024 data suggests a robust 5% growth, with India’s whiteleg shrimp production expected to reach 1.05 million tonnes by 2024.

China’s production, which saw an 8% increase last year, is expected to stagnate, with estimated production around 900,000 tonnes. Slight growth is due to greenhouse shrimp farming, anticipated to rise by about 2%.

Vietnam’s Resilient Performance

Vietnam saw a slight decline in 2023 due to low farmgate prices, but strong export figures have led to revised production estimates, now projected to exceed 600,000 tonnes, a 6% year-on-year increase.

Indonesia has faced two years of declining output, expected to decrease another 5% by 2024, bringing annual output to 300,000 tonnes. The decline rate is slowing, with potential for improvement by 2025 due to promising government programs.

Looking Ahead

The outlook for 2024 is optimistic for key producers. Ecuador, Vietnam, and India are expected to see further output gains, with India potentially achieving a 6% growth. The shrimp industry continues to show resilience and strategic advancement amid global challenges.